"Exclude just Nvidia and the S&P 500 has done no better than the Japanese stock market over the last three years. Exclude the entire technology sector, and even the emerging markets are ahead. So the intuition that US dominance owes much to the Magnificent Seven in general, and Nvidia in particular, is true."
"The weaponisation of currencies has eroded confidence in the US dollar as a neutral reserve asset, encouraging diversification into gold. "
"The world is no longer dealing with an inflation spike but an inflation plateau– one that has quietly redefined what “normal prices” mean across economies. "
"The consensus opinion of market participants is baked into market prices. Thus, if investors lack insight that is superior to the average of the people who make up the consensus, they should expect average risk-adjusted performance. "
"Markets are a race between fundamentals and expectations. When fundamentals get ahead, expectations have to catch up and prices follow. But when expectations get ahead, it's a different story. Fundamentals can't just run faster or jump higher. So it's expectations that need to take a knock, dragging share prices down with them."
"The weaponisation of currencies has eroded confidence in the US dollar as a neutral reserve asset, encouraging diversification into gold. "
"The world is no longer dealing with an inflation spike but an inflation plateau– one that has quietly redefined what “normal prices” mean across economies. "
"The consensus opinion of market participants is baked into market prices. Thus, if investors lack insight that is superior to the average of the people who make up the consensus, they should expect average risk-adjusted performance. "
"Markets are a race between fundamentals and expectations. When fundamentals get ahead, expectations have to catch up and prices follow. But when expectations get ahead, it's a different story. Fundamentals can't just run faster or jump higher. So it's expectations that need to take a knock, dragging share prices down with them."