"Are markets underestimating how an energy shock ripples through the broader economy? There's a fairly direct chain: an energy shock pushes up inflation, which pressures interest rates, valuations, and ultimately growth. The process is unfolding gradually, almost in slow motion, which makes it easier to overlook and harder to manage. The key question is how current inflation expectations can be squared with both a 2% target and expectations for rate cuts. That disconnect may be where the real risk is building."
"Growth is simply a characteristic, either a business is growing or it’s not."
"If anyone has imposed guardrails to limit Donald Trump’s actions, the conventional wisdom goes, it’s the global capital markets. No president likes overseeing a bear market in stocks, least of all this one."
"Investors need to be obsessed with change."
"Are markets underestimating how an energy shock ripples through the broader economy? There's a fairly direct chain: an energy shock pushes up inflation, which pressures interest rates, valuations, and ultimately growth. The process is unfolding gradually, almost in slow motion, which makes it easier to overlook and harder to manage. The key question is how current inflation expectations can be squared with both a 2% target and expectations for rate cuts. That disconnect may be where the real risk is building."
"Growth is simply a characteristic, either a business is growing or it’s not."
"If anyone has imposed guardrails to limit Donald Trump’s actions, the conventional wisdom goes, it’s the global capital markets. No president likes overseeing a bear market in stocks, least of all this one."
"Investors need to be obsessed with change."