"In fact, the markets are unbelievably stupid over the short term and unbelievably smart over the long term."
"U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the curve, with longer-dated yields near or at cyclical highs. This has sent U.S. authorities scrambling to find policies and narratives to calm bond investors and contain the rise in Treasury yields. Ironically, their actions have had the opposite effect, by shifting the spotlight back to the mushrooming U.S. government debt and relentless rise in the debt-servicing burden, as well as persistent inflation risks."
"My view is that the ‘Bessent put’ is still going to fail to keep yields down from multi-decade highs over the longer term. Making yields go down over the longer period will require the painful work of bringing down the debt."
"Almost by definition, the long bond market moves slowly, but shifts of the tectonic plates can have a serious effect. If there’s any risk of a major quake to disturb the current calm, this is where it comes from."